Gradually, the economic impact of the Covid-19 epidemic is becoming clearer. In France, the tourism sector will suffer much less than in other countries.
Nevertheless, due to the decrease in demand, our country could lose up to 5% of its GDP in 2020, warns the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development.
Today, it is the tourism sector’s turn to benefit from a comprehensive study, and the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development is taking on the task.
For this, their specialists have modeled three scenarios: “moderate” (four months without foreign tourist arrivals, equating to a loss of 1/3 of the revenue generated by foreign tourists for the year), “intermediate” (eight months without foreign tourist arrivals, equating to a loss of 2/3 of the revenue), and “catastrophic” (12 months without foreign tourists, equating to a total loss of the annual revenue).
If the “moderate” scenario had occurred, the French tourism sector would have ended the year with a shortfall of 41.9 billion euros (or 2% of the GDP).
As for the other scenarios, which still have chances of occurring, in the “intermediate” scenario France would have a shortfall of 81.9 billion euros (3% of the GDP), and in the “catastrophic” scenario a shortfall of 121.8 billion euros (5% of the GDP).
Unlike other European countries, France is ultimately not doing too badly.
Compared to our European neighbors, in revenue, the impact of the epidemic on the tourism sector is expected to be the strongest in France. But not as a percentage! Thanks to its diversified economy, France will be able to cope better. *
Worldwide, the equivalent of 1.2 trillion euros could be wiped from accounts due to the halt in the tourism sector if the “moderate” scenario occurs. And if the “intermediate” or “catastrophic” scenario were to occur, the shortfall would amount to 2.2 trillion and 3.3 trillion euros respectively.
