In the fourth quarter, the French gross domestic product (GDP) is expected to grow by about 0.2%, according to the report published by the National Institute of Statistics and Economic Studies (Insee).
Ultimately, economic growth is not expected to exceed 1.5% in 2018. This estimate is in line with the one provided by the Bank of France on Thursday, December 13, and sets the growth carryover at 1% by mid-2019.
The cost of concessions to the Yellow Vests rises to 10.3 billion euros (estimates).
The whole issue is to offset the cost of these measures (cancellation of the carbon tax hike, removal of the increase in the CSG for an additional 30% of retirees, etc.), to ensure that the deficit does not significantly exceed 3% of GDP, a threshold that France had committed not to surpass in its agreements with the European Commission.
The government is now targeting a deficit of -3.2% of GDP by the end of 2019, compared to the initially anticipated 2.8%.
They will need strong arguments to explain all this to Brussels.
