The coronavirus has already caused a health crash; now it will also sustainably attack our economy.
Globally, growth will be negative, and France will not be spared: the first quarter records a GDP drop of -5.3. A small consolation, INSEE had predicted -5.8 in its previous forecast.
But the situation is expected to worsen considerably in the second quarter, with a month and a half of lockdown and a start to gradual easing from May 11.
INSEE has already warned that it is counting on an economic plunge of about 20% in the second quarter. And the recession will far exceed the 8% GDP decline envisaged by the government for now.
The latter should also reveal its new forecast during a third amended budget, which will be presented on June 10 in the council of ministers.
All indicators (household consumption: -5.6, business investment: -10.5) are in the red. Only the trade balance (normally in deficit) is stable: with export evaluations (-6.1%) and imports (-5.7%). The balance had a zero impact.
The question that is in the air now is: how long will the economic crisis last?
