INSEE has once again raised its growth forecast for the year 2017 and hints at a 2018 that could perform quite well and possibly break records.
INSEE initially projected a growth of 1.6% for 2017, but it now expects 1.9%. This is a very optimistic forecast compared to Brussels, which expects only 1.6% growth for France.
If INSEE proves to be correct, the French economy would be doing quite well: France has not seen such growth since 2011, before the full impact of the 2008 global economic crisis hit the country. And it’s not over yet.
To add to this good news on the country’s growth front, INSEE is forecasting a very positive first two quarters in 2018: 0.5% for the first and 0.4% for the second. This allows INSEE to announce as early as December 2017 a growth forecast for 2018 that would be at least 1.7%.
The growth asset is simply the level of growth in case of zero growth in the following quarters until the end of the year. In short: if the growth in the first and second quarters is indeed at the announced level, 0.5% and 0.4%, and the growth from the second and third quarters is zero, then France will have experienced a growth of 1.7% in 2018.
However, it is unlikely that growth will abruptly stop in June 2018 unless a major global event occurs.
