The real estate report from the Notaires de France, published this Monday, December 16, presents a mixed picture for 2024. With a national decline in transactions and prices, Nice stands out by resisting the trend.
The volume of real estate transactions in France has fallen by 17% year-on-year. By the end of September, 780,000 transactions had been completed, compared to 935,000 in 2023. This drop marks a significant decline since the peak of 1.2 million recorded in 2021. According to projections, the year 2024 should conclude with around 750,000 transactions.
In terms of prices, the observation is similar. Between September 2023 and September 2024, the prices of existing homes have decreased by -3.9% in mainland France. However, this decline seems to be easing. The notaries anticipate a stabilization by early 2025, with a national decrease contained at -1.2%.
The causes of this slowdown are multiple. The tightening of real estate credit since 2022, coupled with economic and political uncertainties, has weakened the market. Despite this, the notaries note a return, still fragile, of confidence since the start of the school year thanks to more favorable rates.
Nice: a national exception
While most major cities are experiencing significant declines, Nice is holding firm. The capital of the Côte d’Azur is even the second most expensive city in France, behind Paris. Unlike Lyon or Nantes, where prices have dropped by up to -9%, Nice sees its price per square meter slightly increase by +0.1%.
This situation is explained by a strong demand, supported by the attractiveness of the city and its prized location. Nice remains a safe haven, despite the decrease in real estate purchasing power observed since 2021. Today, with monthly payments equivalent to a third of their income, households can acquire an average of 77 m² housing in France, gaining 3 m² over one year.
The outlook for 2025 remains cautious. According to the notaries, market stabilization is conceivable, but the economic and political context could hinder this dynamic. In Nice, the sustained demand is expected to allow the local market to maintain its resilience.
The 2024 report confirms a real estate market under pressure. However, certain cities like Nice are resilient, supported by structural advantages. Notaries now hope for a more stable 2025 to restore confidence to households.