The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) has published its “Employment Outlook 2020.” It warns that it is time to make “crucial decisions” regarding employment to limit the damage. Urgent actions are needed “to prevent the employment crisis from turning into a social crisis.”
In its forecasts, the OECD revisits the unemployment rate, which is likely to spike, rising from 8.4% in May 2020 across all member countries to 9.4% by the end of 2020.
In France, the increase will be quite significant, with a rise from 8.1% to 12.3%. The OECD, for which “a second wave of the epidemic is not ruled out,” estimates that in the event of new restrictive measures, unemployment in France could reach 13.7%.
This situation is explained by the numerous “zombie jobs.” In June, 60 million employees were still on partial unemployment.
The OECD estimates that 20% of these jobs would no longer be viable and would ultimately be at risk of disappearing, which is nearly 9 million jobs. They are therefore regarded as living on borrowed time. These are referred to as zombies because the companies that have these jobs are over-indebted and avoid inevitable bankruptcy by not paying back their debts. They survive thanks to state aid but are doomed to extinction.
This situation is troubling many economists, who see these aids as the artificial preservation of companies that should have gone bankrupt during the crisis.
Some companies are promoting this survival through fraud; meanwhile, the French Ministry of Labor has reportedly identified 850 fraudulent companies that are unfairly taking advantage of the partial unemployment system and fostering zombie employment.
