The problem is unprecedented in our contemporary era, thanks to mobility systems and information technologies that allow for increasing amplification with a significant psychological impact on populations (especially on those who are the most intellectually weak and sociologically fragile).
Already Machiavelli said: “In the beginning, any novelty is rejected. Those who think it might be disadvantageous to them will naturally be against it. And those who could benefit from it will still be disturbed by the change in their habits. Only the boldness and tenacity of some will ultimately be rewarded.”
Thus, we must ask politicians and decision-makers of all categories (the opinion-makers) to demonstrate intelligence and morality and to look at this problem “from a high and distant perspective” so that it does not become a caricature of itself: an “electoral cake cut into slices and perceived as such.”
Migrations have existed since the birth of the world and are at the origin of the successive configurations of resident populations.
For history’s sake, we just want to remind that the United States is a country that was born through immigration.
Italy, whose 150th anniversary of unity will soon be celebrated, experienced emigration from 1860 to 1970 (end of the negative balance of emigration flow) of 30 million people, with a balance between departures and returns of 11 million. It’s estimated that nearly 70 million people of Italian origin currently live in the world, which is more than the citizens of Italian nationality, who are 60 million, including 3.5 million residing abroad. Italians residing in the consular district 04-05-06, which depends on the Consulate General of Nice, number about 28,000, including about 9,000 in Nice. It is estimated that 30% of the population of Nice is of Italian origin.
Here we want to refer to more recent news to frame them in a global analysis to avoid being swept away by the emotions of current events and their political-electoral manipulations.
Present in all periods of history, migrations are experiencing unprecedented growth today. Facilitated by the opening of borders but also by the need for labor, they are being redeployed in a new geography. Stimulated by globalization, the development of networks, communications, and transport, they are globalizing.
Indeed, while international migrants represented only 75 million people in 1965, it is now estimated that they number over 200 million. Together they would already constitute the fifth (!!!) most populated country on the planet, even if they only gather 3% of the global population.
But their number increases by 3% each year, while the global population only grows by 1.2% annually.
The border most sought to be crossed by migrants is actually, more than physical and administrative, demographic, economic, and social. Thus, the distribution of population and wealth in the world and their evolutions already give some possible early trends of future migratory flows.
With climate changes, Africa constitutes the greatest unknown for future migrations.
Thus, the world map is being reshaped little by little.
These statistics (source WB 2008) should be defined as “random” given the statistical invisibility of clandestine migrations, the reliability of collected data, and the great disparity of the nomenclatures used.
However, they show that, in this case, there is no “French exception” and that only coordinated international policies will allow the establishment of credible and effective support policies as far as possible.
The DIY option (Do-it-yourself/do it alone) would obviously be demagogic and, above all, deceptive in terms of expected results.
–Disparities favorable to migrations:
Globally, it is estimated that 40% of the world’s population shares 5% of the global income, while the richest 10% capture 54%.
Knowing that economic and demographic disparities fuel the largest part of migratory flows, these two statistics allow us to understand global trends, from the least developed and most populous regions to those that are richer and demographically less active.
–The geography of migrations highlights global economic fractures more than ever.
Most migrants originate from developing countries.
The search for a better life on the social, economic, and professional levels is the main driver of migrations.
In the majority (56%), they are settling in highly developed countries (Human Development Index (HDI) > 0.9). Therefore, while migrants living in developed countries increased from 88 million in 1990 to 93 million in 2010, it rose from 66 million to 120 million in highly developed countries.
- Decrease and aging of the European population
At the same time, if we relate migrations to the populations in host countries, we can also observe that migrants increasingly help fill a demographic deficit there.
It is even estimated that without migrants, the European population would have decreased by 4.4 million people between 1995 and 2000.
Thus, migrations should remain a reflection of economic and demographic developments in the coming decades.
Among the most determining factors are aging in Europe, where the median age is 20 years higher than that of sub-Saharan Africa. At the same time, there is a shortage of essential and non-relocatable labor (construction, care, services…) that is becoming evident in most developed countries.
